Prediction of Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini vs Juan Cruz Martin Manzano at M15 Monastir 18 Dec 2025

• Second Serve Performance: Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini has had a slight edge, winning 41.56% of points, compared to 40.87% for Juan Cruz Martin Manzano. Is this difference enough to sway predictions? It could be crucial in tight matches.
• Return Game Stats: Mordini also slightly leads in returning second serves, capturing 49.58% of points, while Manzano tallies at 49.25%. For first serve returns, Mordini again leads with 35.24% versus Manzano's 33.73%.
• Breakpoint Under Pressure: Mordini shows better resilience, saving 47.37% of breakpoints compared to Manzano's 43.15%, indicating potential advantages in pressure situations.
• Performance Overview: Over the past year, Manzano has a superior winning record, with a 64.29% win percentage versus Mordini's 55.77%. What might this imply? Manzano may be the more consistent performer.
• Best Surface: Both excel on Hard courts with a 64% win rate. However, Manzano has a significant advantage on Clay, with a 65% win percentage compared to Mordini's 49%.
• Player Level and Experience: Manzano has been more successful in the Futures/Satellites/ITF $10K events, winning 66.67% of his matches, compared to Mordini's 55.77%. This potentially signifies higher competitiveness.
• Direct Head-to-Head: In past encounters, Manzano has the upper hand, winning their only match decisively against Mordini, 6-2, 6-2.
• Opponent Quality: Mordini has faced tougher opponents on average, with an average opponent ranking of 123.46, while Manzano's opponents average at 348.2.
• Break Point Conversion: While Mordini converts 49.21% of breakpoints, Manzano converts 44.39%, signaling an edge for Mordini in seizing opportunities during critical moments.
• Deciding Set Success: Both players have an equal record, winning 50% of deciding sets, indicating no clear advantage here.

Editorial Prediction (December 18, 2025, UTC):

The match between Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini and Juan Cruz Martin Manzano promises to be competitive, given their closely matched statistics in recent form.

Mordini demonstrates a slight edge in second serve performance and breakpoint conversion, suggesting potentially better point-winning at critical moments. However, Manzano's superior overall win rate and success on clay could be deciding factors.

Considering Manzano's previous victory over Mordini and his stronger clay performance, he holds a marginal advantage going into this match. Hence, Juan Cruz Martin Manzano is the likely winner of this encounter.